At Out the Gate, held on 20 May in Christchurch, Global Agritrends analyst Simon Quilty shared his outlook on global red meat markets and what it means for New Zealand farmers.
His message was clear: global fundamentals are working in New Zealand’s favour. Strong demand, tightening supply and shifting trade dynamics are creating a positive outlook for sheep and beef, with opportunities ahead for farmers who are well positioned to respond.
Strong global demand is driving the market
Demand for red meat continues to grow across key markets, particularly in the United States, where protein is becoming a bigger focus in everyday diets.
Simon highlighted that this isn’t a short-term shift. It’s being driven by long-term trends from younger consumers prioritising protein alongside fitness and health, to older populations focusing on maintaining strength and wellbeing. Together, this is creating sustained demand for beef and sheepmeat, with protein firmly back at the centre of the plate.
He adds, “The growing use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs has seen a focus on protein by users who see meat, as an integral part of the programme. The cost of these drugs is very high, estimated to be $1,700 NZD per month.”
Quilty noted that around 45 million people in the United States are currently using these drugs, with that figure expected to rise to around 90 million over the next three years, with similar trends likely across other developed markets.
With such high-end users, Simon believed these consumers were likely to be willing to pay far more for nutrient dense products like beef and lamb.
Supply is tightening globally
At the same time, supply is tightening across major producing countries, including the United States, Australia and South America.
These markets are moving through similar production cycles, with herd rebuilds and reduced output expected to limit supply over the next few years. That shift is changing the market dynamic – from one driven primarily by demand to one increasingly constrained by supply, which typically supports stronger pricing.
“We’re going to tighten beef supplies in a unique way over the next couple of years with all major supply countries are moving into a rebuild programme of their herds or have already started. This will see beef shortages across the globe,” says Quilty.
New Zealand is well placed to benefit
With global supply under pressure, New Zealand is in a strong position to step in and fill gaps in key markets.
Quilty described this as an increasing role in “backfilling” – particularly into the United States, where New Zealand beef plays a critical role in supply chains. At the same time, New Zealand’s reputation for high-quality, grass-fed product continues to support demand across a range of export markets.
“New Zealand is backfilling the backfiller,” he said, highlighting the country’s growing role in global supply.
Prices are expected to remain strong
With demand holding firm and supply tightening, the outlook for both lamb and beef pricing remains positive.
Global prices are already sitting at or near record levels, and the fundamentals suggest that strength is likely to continue. While markets will always fluctuate, the underlying conditions are pointing to ongoing support for returns in the short to medium term.
Trade shifts are creating opportunity
Changing global trade dynamics are also opening up new opportunities for New Zealand exporters.
Shifts in access, competition and supply across major markets are creating space for New Zealand to strengthen its position. In some regions, reduced competition from other exporters is improving access and enabling New Zealand to capture more value from its product.
“It all points to a really promising outlook” Quilty said.
Farmers are already adapting
Farmers are not standing still. Across the sector, there’s a clear focus on managing costs, improving efficiency and making more strategic decisions on-farm.
That includes adapting fertiliser use, refining systems and taking a more targeted approach to inputs and production. This ability to respond and adjust remains one of the sector’s key strengths – and will be critical in making the most of favourable market conditions.
“People had been getting somewhat pessimistic … but this is actually really promising news,” Quilty said.
A strong red meat sector means a stronger New Zealand economy
While strong global markets are positive for farmers, separate new independent research commissioned by B+LNZ and the Meat Industry Association shows the benefits extend far beyond the farm gate.
The BERL Study, released after Out the Gate, found the red meat sector drives nearly $50 billion in annual spending across the New Zealand economy and supports one in every 20 jobs. That flow-on effect is felt right across the country highlighting the sector’s critical role in supporting the wider economy.
More information
For those wanting to hear more from Simon, you can watch his recent overview on YouTube.