More than 300 people gathered in Wellington this week for a highly successful annual Red Meat Sector Conference, which is organised by the Meat Industry Association in partnership with Beef + Lamb New Zealand.
The US was a major focus at the conference.
Headline speaker Greg Foran, chief executive of US retailer Kroger and former chief executive of Air New Zealand, highlighted resilient red meat demand despite high retail prices in the US and the opportunity for dependable New Zealand suppliers.
Foran described a US beef market caught between shrinking livestock availability and growing consumer demand. Even with the national herd at a multi-decade low and shop prices near record levels, customers had not turned away from beef.
The imbalance was changing leverage across the supply chain. With fewer cattle available, farmers had gained influence, processors were competing to maintain plant throughput, and retailers were managing categories in which demand could exceed supply.
Drawing on Kroger’s reach across 2,700 stores and about 11 million customers, he said shoppers were continuing to buy red meat but adjusting the cut to suit their household budget -trading up to premium steak when finances allowed and choosing mince when they did not.
That resilience, combined with the United States’ need for imported lean beef, reinforced the scale of the opportunity for New Zealand suppliers able to deliver consistent quality, value and reliability.
In an analysis of global markets, Global AgriTrends’ Simon Quilty and Brett Stewart said beef and lamb markets remained exposed to conflict, political intervention and trade restrictions, but the fundamentals were favourable for New Zealand.
Exporters had adapted quickly to disruption in the Middle East, while temporary US tariff relief for additional ground-beef imports was expected to have only a short-lived effect.
They said the US safeguard investigation into lamb imports remained a risk, although they questioned the case for protection while American domestic lamb prices were at record levels.
They also argued that exceptional US beef demand, not cattle scarcity alone, was driving prices. Protein-focused diets and improved product quality had sustained consumption despite record retail prices.
With US beef availability expected to tighten through 2026 and 2027, and herd rebuilding reducing slaughter in several major producing countries, global supply was likely to remain constrained.
New Zealand was well placed to benefit through its high-quality grass-fed product, remaining access into China and ability to rebuild production relatively quickly.
Kent Bacus of the US National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discussed how the US policy environment was being shaped by the mid-term elections, inflation, fuel and housing costs, interest rates, immigration and rapid investment in artificial intelligence.
He also noted that while the US beef herd was at its lowest levels in 75 years, domestic beef production was virtually the same due to major productivity gains. Beef imports had increased by 40 per cent in the last year and domestic beef prices were still increasing. This made it clear that the real driver of market dynamics was increased consumer demand.
On trade, Bacus pointed to a shift from traditional agreements towards executive action and managed trade under President Donald Trump, with tariffs increasingly used as negotiating leverage. Recent measures involving Argentina and Brazil had unsettled cattle markets and producer confidence without lowering retail beef prices.
Despite growing protectionist rhetoric, he stressed that the US cattle industry had no concerns about New Zealand beef imports as it complemented US beef production.
He highlighted the close relationship the NCBA had built with Beef + Lamb New Zealand through the people it had appointed to the United States over the years. His message was to remain invested in the US relationship.
Agriculture Minister Hon Todd McClay discussed the India Free Trade Agreement and the gains expected from trade agreements such as the European Union FTA.
He joined Hon Damien O’Connor, Hon Mark Patterson, Scott Willis and Hon Andrew Hoggard in a robust political debate facilitated by BusinessNZ’s Tracy Watkins.
The conference culminated in a gala dinner on Tuesday night.