A recent visit to the United States by B+LNZ Chair Kate Acland, alongside the Government’s Special Agricultural Trade Envoy Nathan Guy, reinforced the enduring importance of this market for NZ red meat.
Article by B+LNZ Chair, Kate Acland
A recent visit to the United States alongside Nathan Guy, the Government’s Special Agricultural Trade Envoy, reinforced for me the enduring importance of this market for New Zealand red meat.
The US remains one of our most significant and sophisticated trading partners. As the sector marks 100 years of New Zealand red meat exports into North America, the visit underscored the depth of that relationship and the need to keep strengthening it in an increasingly competitive and volatile global environment.
One hundred years is no small milestone. It speaks to something we don’t say often enough: New Zealand is not just a supplier, but a trusted partner.
The US market feels both familiar and foreign. The scale is different, but the fundamentals are the same: farmers managing risk, governments worrying about food prices and consumers demanding more protein. For New Zealand farmers and exporters, that creates both pressure and opportunity.
That message came through clearly in meetings with US industry groups. New Zealand is valued because we are dependable. We deliver product that is safe, traceable, compliant and consistent. In a volatile world, those qualities carry real weight.
Even discussions with US sheep industry groups, where the relationship has at times been strained, were focused on where collaboration is possible.
Right now, America wants protein. You can see it in supermarket aisles, where “grams of protein” has become a selling point. The rise of GLP-1 medications and a broader push to improve diets have helped put red meat back in favour.
At the same time, the cost of living is driving politics. The US administration wants cheaper beef for consumers and a rebuilt domestic herd. But biology does not move to an election timetable.
Drought and structural constraints mean any meaningful herd recovery is still years away. Some economists say not until 2029.
That gap between demand and domestic supply creates opportunity but it also invites competition.
Plenty of countries would like to fill that gap, many of them much closer to the US market. That makes New Zealand’s position both valuable and vulnerable.
Our 240,000-tonne WTO quota enters at minimal tariff, while others face a most-favoured-nation rate of about 26 per cent. That is a major advantage, but not one we can assume will always protect us. Talk of further tariff reductions could quickly change the competitive balance.
What is clear is that New Zealand’s role is not merely tolerated; it is needed. US processors rely on our lean beef to blend with fattier domestic trim for the ground beef Americans eat in huge volumes. It is a complementary trade that supports jobs in towns and cities across the US and gives New Zealand a dependable market.
We are not competing head-on in the grain-finished steak market. We sit beside it. Our grass-fed product is building a distinct and growing niche. As one US wholesaler told us, grass-fed is the new organic. That should get our attention.
There are warning signs though. US cattle producers have kept output up despite a smaller herd by pushing animals to heavier weights. But bigger carcasses strain processing plants, and there are limits to how far productivity can be driven.
In sheep, the picture is more unsettled. US flock numbers have been falling for decades, without the productivity gains New Zealand has achieved. In that environment, imports can easily become a political target.
We’re aware of reports that the US is to launch a global safeguard investigation into lamb imports. We’ve been closely monitoring developments and have been preparing for this possibility.
Land use is another familiar tension. US beef producers are increasingly concerned about grazing land being converted to solar farms. It echoes New Zealand’s own debate over carbon farming.
For sheep producers, however, the same trend can create opportunity. Running sheep under solar panels is helping lift flock numbers in some states.
The lesson from this trip is straightforward: New Zealand is well placed, but the market is becoming less forgiving. Our reputation, market access and product differentiation remain major strengths, but only if we protect them.
The US market is hungry, but it is changing fast. We need to keep leaning into what makes New Zealand distinctive: reliability, integrity and grass-fed production. In this market, nothing should be taken for granted.