New Zealand’s red meat sector is on track for a strong rebound, with farm profitability and export returns expected to rise significantly in the 2024-25 season, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s (B+LNZ) Mid-Season Update.
- Mid-season update 2024–2025 (PDF, 2.4 MB)
- Mid-season update 2024–25 summary (PDF, 138 KB)
Global demand, particularly from the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and Canada, has remained strong, helping to offset weaker demand from China.
As a result, export receipts are forecast to increase by $1.2 billion on last year to reach $10.2 billion in 2024-25, despite lower overall export volumes.
B+LNZ Chair Kate Acland says the improved global market conditions are encouraging but challenges remain.
“This is a welcome turnaround for farmers following a tough 2023-24 season and a great result for New Zealand. Strong demand and a lower New Zealand dollar have lifted red meat prices.
“There are, however, risks on the horizon. We are keeping a very close eye on US trade policy developments which have the potential to create global market volatility.”
Farm-gate prices have lifted significantly this season. Lamb prices are forecast to reach $155 per head, up 20 percent from last season and 9 percent above the five-year average.
Mutton prices are expected to rise to $90 per head – a 70 percent increase on last season. Cattle prices are projected to hit record levels, with an all-beef price of 618 cents per kg, 16 percent higher than last season and 20 percent above the five-year average.
As a result, farm profitability is set to improve. The average farm profit for 2024-25 is forecast at $106,500 – nearly double last season’s $56,400 – but still below the five-year average.
“The lift in profitability is good news, but costs remain a concern,” says Acland.
“While revenue has improved, farm input costs have risen 33 percent over the past four years, meaning profitability is still below long-term sustainable levels.”
Beyond farm profits, the red meat sector continues to make a significant contribution to the New Zealand economy.
This season, sheep and beef farmers are expected to generate about $6.4 billion in income. Every day, they spend around $15 million on goods and services, with 80-90 percent of that money staying in local communities, helping businesses, and creating jobs.
Shifting global trade patterns have played a key role in the sector’s recovery. While China remains an important market, New Zealand exporters have diversified, increasing shipments to markets where demand is stronger. Meanwhile, constrained supply from New Zealand and record-low US cattle numbers have further supported farm-gate prices.
“We are seeing positive signs for the sector, but uncertainty remains,” says Acland.
“Farmer confidence is slowly recovering, but regulatory uncertainty around climate change, freshwater and other policy issues continues to weigh heavily on their minds.
“Stability in these areas is critical for long-term confidence and investment. New Zealand’s red meat sector is resilient, and with the right policy settings, we can build on this recovery and strengthen our industry for the future.”
ENDS
Download:
- Mid season update 2024–2025 (PDF, 2.4 MB)
- Mid-season update 2024–25 summary (PDF, 138 KB)
For media queries email media@beeflambnz.com or call 027 235 9806.