Impact of the Iran Conflict on New Zealand’s red meat sector

Impact on New Zealand’s red meat exports 

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to Iranian attacks on commercial ships creating immediate logistical challenges. A small amount of New Zealand product in the region has been affected, with flow‑on impacts to alternative ports. Some containers destined for Gulf markets are being diverted, requiring exporters to arrange new onward transport to other markets or return the product to New Zealand. Chilled product is the most sensitive, as longer transit times increase the risk of quality issues. 
• While New Zealand’s overall export volumes to the Middle East remain relatively small (less than 5%), almost all trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz. 
• In 2025, this trade was valued at $298 million. Some GCC markets, such as Saudi Arabia (via Jeddah) and Oman (via Sohar), do have ports outside the Gulf, though these are facing higher congestion due to the inaccessibility of Gulf ports. The greatest impact will likely be on New Zealand’s chilled exports, which were worth $166 million last year. 
• Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz do not directly affect New Zealand shipments to the UK or Europe as New Zealand’s red meat exports to these markets transit via the Red Sea or around the Cape of Good Hope.  

GCC countries are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.  

Short term impacts 

• Fuel and transport costs are already increasing and will impact the entire supply chain. These elevated costs are likely to persist due to further reductions in oil output by GCC producers. 
• Fertiliser co-ops have advised that they have sufficient supply to meet farmer’s usual autumn needs.  

Medium term impacts 

• Although we have not yet seen New Zealand’s shipping lines reprioritised, this remains a possibility and could resemble the disruptions experienced during the COVID‑19 pandemic.  
• These kinds of shipping disruptions would have flow on effects across the supply chain, including constrained access to refrigeration, transition, and port facilities.  
• One area of concern is the disruption could potentially slow the turnaround of containers and the return of empty containers to New Zealand.  
• When ports get congested, ships sometimes have to leave before they are fully loaded. When that happens, empty refrigerated containers are often the first to be left behind, which can reduce the supply of containers available here in New Zealand.  
• This means processors/exporters’ ability to ship products to global markets could be constrained by a lack of containers.  
• The processing of cows, sheep and cattle domestically are currently tracking below expected volume for this time of year and there is a possibility of processing capacity issues later in the season, particularly if there are refrigeration constraints.   
• The scale of these impacts would increase if the disruptions were prolonged or coincided with peak seasonal export periods for other agricultural sectors. 
• International fertiliser prices remain elevated and are expected to increase as the war continues to constrain supply. Fertiliser prices and availability are closely linked to oil and gas markets, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilisers reliant on natural gas for production. As supplies tighten, export controls could further compound the issue.  

Advice to farmers  

• Talk to your fertiliser representative to plan for spring fertiliser use. 
• Talk to your stocking agent/processor to discuss getting stock away earlier. 

We are monitoring the situation closely, working with the Government and across the agricultural sector to support response efforts. We will continue to provide up to date advice on how to best navigate the challenges caused by these disruptions.