Two of the world’s leading experts on global agriculture and food trade trends have told the Red Meat Sector conference in Christchurch they expect beef and sheepmeat prices to continue to rise over the next year.
Brett Stuart and Simon Quilty, principals and owners of US-based Global AgriTrends, said that during more than 20 years providing market intelligence, they had never seen “a more extraordinary time” in the international industry.
Quilty said they consider current global beef prices, which hit a record high of 139.4 points in the FAO Global Beef Price Index in June, are sustainable.
“It’s a similar story for the sheepmeat sector,” he said. “We are not quite at record prices, but we are a millisecond away from it …. they are up 68 per cent since the lows of October/November 2023.
“On every front, when it comes to global markets, I truly think we are in a period now where the highs of market are likely to be next year. It will probably be the sheepmeat sector that will be the first to peak, followed by beef in the latter part of the next year.”
Their expectation was that New Zealand steer prices would rise a further 15 per cent and New Zealand prime lamb would achieve $10/$11 kg by mid-2026.
While recent cattle and beef prices have been demand-driven, they predict the next step will be supply driven, with the tightest supplies and highest prices in 2027-2028.
They expect beef prices to start moderating in 2027-2028 and start falling, due to higher production, in 2029-2030.
Despite higher prices, demand remains steady in the US, and China is now “the largest beef importer on earth by a wide margin” reaching 2.87 million tonnes during 2024.
Stuart said that, so far, US President Donald Trump’s “bark has been much worse than the bite” overall when it comes to tariffs, although that could change.
A current unknown, however, is what the outcome will be of China’s current safeguard investigation into the impact of imports on domestic beef pricing.
US beef imports into China were halted in March. Brazil, facing a potential 76.4 per cent US tariff, has redirected beef to China, with benefits for New Zealand and Australian exports as they ‘backfill’ other markets.
A high US tariff on Brazilian beef could, however, lead to higher prices for New Zealand. Brazil beef imports into the US from January to May rose by 118 per cent on 2024, totalling 175,063MT compared to 79,133MT for NZ.
Elsewhere, a heavy US tariff on Brazil would be likely to have minimal impact on New Zealand.
“Brazil has no access to Japan and Korea,” said Quilty.
“China will see more Brazilian meat, but it can handle it. There is no US beef and room has been created. Brazil will also be commencing a herd rebuild at the start of 2026, with tighter supplies.”
Farmers will have an opportunity to see a shorter version of the pair’s presentation at selected meetings for the B+LNZ Directors’ roadshow.