The following was sent to farmers on 13 October 2025.
We’re pleased to share with you the Government’s announcement that agricultural emissions will not be priced and methane targets have been revised based on the science of no additional warming.
We also welcome the Government’s commitment to consider taking a split-gas approach to future Paris Agreement commitments.
This announcement is the culmination of many years of work by B+LNZ and others arguing that there is no need for a price on emissions and making the case for a science-based approach to emissions reduction targets.
The result is by no means perfect but it is a big improvement on where we were. It provides much needed certainty by removing the threat of emissions pricing and means farmers can focus on doing what we do best – producing quality protein for the world’s most discerning customers.
What was announced
The Government has:
- Taken the pricing of agricultural emissions off the table
- Revised NZ’s methane targets to a 14 to 24 percent reduction by 2050 from 2017 levels (previously a 24 to 47 percent range) with a review of progress to targets scheduled for 2040
- Committed to investigating amending NZ’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC – the target reported on internationally under the Paris Agreement on climate change) to take a split-gas approach.
More about agricultural emissions pricing
- The threat of a price on agricultural emissions has been eroding farmer confidence, so the removal of this threat gives farmers much needed certainty and clarity.
- The majority of our trading partners don’t intend to price agricultural emissions but are instead looking to incentivise through carbon credits or the market (read more about that in a report we released last year). The Government’s decision is therefore in line with what other countries are doing.
- A price on agricultural emissions is unnecessary as our emissions are already coming down.
- Since 1990 gross emission from sheep and beef production have decreased by more than 32 percent, with a significant proportion of remaining emissions being offset through sequestration from native and exotic trees on our farms.
More about the revised targets
B+LNZ has been calling for the targets to be revised, and for NZ to start reporting on the warming impact of various gases, since the passage of the Zero Carbon Bill in 2019.
- In 2023 we led a joint project with Federated Farmers and DairyNZ to commission independent research led by internationally respected climate scientist Professor Myles Allen to measure the warming impact of NZ’s methane targets (read about that work here).
- This influential research confirmed the targets were too high and helped build the case for the Government to appoint an independent panel of highly respected experts to review the science and targets for consistency with no additional warming. The panel reported back in December 2024, recommending the 14 to 24 percent range.
- For more information on our ongoing advocacy in this area, see this page on our website.
The revised targets better reflect the science around the different warming impact of short- and long-lived gases.
- Methane should only be asked to do what is expected of other gases – unlike long-lived gases like carbon dioxide which need to be reduced to net zero to not add any more new warming, methane only needs to decline by a modest amount to not add additional warming.
The revised targets are science-based, but they will still be a stretch for our sector.
We know some farmers would prefer there were no targets, but we want these targets to be enduring and the best way to achieve this to advocate for an outcome that is science-based.
The Government’s independent review showed a 14 percent reduction in methane would see agriculture add no additional warming by 2050, if all other countries do what they said they were going to do. Our view is that end of the range is the most appropriate to be aiming for.
More about the NDC review
The Government’s commitment to review our NDC with a view to potentially taking a split-gas approach is significant progress following years of advocacy.
- A split-gas approach is more in line with the Paris Agreement’s recognition of the important role of food production and safeguarding food security. It also recognises the different role methane plays in warming compared to long-lived gases. In 2022, a paper signed by many of the world’s leading climate scientists supported a split-gas approach to NDCs (read that paper here).
- We’ve been working with our counterpart organisations in a wide range of agricultural producing countries to advance a unified position on a split-gas approach and for them to advocate on this with their respective governments (see for example this story).
- Uruguay has already set a precedent by including a split-gas approach in its NDC, and we’re encouraging others to follow.
Next steps
- B+LNZ will continue to build on the above with our ongoing advocacy and we’ll work with all political parties, because what farmers need most is enduring policy that allows us to invest with confidence.
- We’ll also look at ways to build understanding among the public about the science of warming and why it matters. We’re committed to telling the story of our world-leading sustainable food production, and highlighting how farming is an engine room of NZ’s economy.
- We’ll continue to monitor and advocate against whole-farm sales into carbon farming as a result of ETS policy settings and will escalate this issue further if we don’t see changes.
A final note
Climate change policy has been hugely divisive for NZ and for our sector and has taken an enormous amount of energy and resource from industry organisations and individual farmers. We’d like to acknowledge those farmers who have engaged along the way in this important issue.
B+LNZ will continue to push for better outcomes based on science, especially in the international setting, but hopefully this week’s announcement will give us as farmers some peace of mind to get on with what matters most – the business of farming.
Thanks for your time – as always, please contact us if you have any questions.