The decline in sheep numbers was across both breeding ewes, down 0.5 percent to 16.48 million, and hoggets, which decreased 0.6 percent to 8.61 million. An increase in the number of beef cattle was driven largely by more rising twoyear-old cattle, particularly in the North Island.
The decline in hogget numbers was most noticeable in Northland-Waikato-Bay of Plenty (6.7 percent) and Southland (-7.9 percent), where strong mutton prices encouraged greater levels of trading. Winter and spring 2020 conditions were difficult in some regions, particularly the South Island, leading to destocking of sheep prior to Christmas due to lack of feed. Drought and dry conditions along eastern parts of the country in 2021 led to tight feed conditions for many farmers.
Flooding in Canterbury at the end of May 2021 significantly impacted a number of farms with losses of feed on hand and a shortage of grazing options. The clean-up from this flood event will last for many months for some farmers. It came at the end of a difficult drought and was followed by a cold snap and snowfall.
The lamb crop is expected to be 1.6 percent higher nationally. B+LNZ Economic Service Chief Economist Andrew Burtt says the modest increase in lamb crop is based on ewe body condition and pregnancy scanning results at the time of surveying farmers, and depends on favourable weather conditions in spring.
“Strong mutton prices have encouraged farmers to sell ewes and hoggets this season and in some areas climatic conditions have forced farmers’ hands. The outlook for beef prices is less certain and although overall beef cattle numbers were up at 30 June, B+LNZ is forecasting a slight decrease in calves from sheep and beef farms this spring.”
The most recent analysis means that since 2000 the total number of sheep in New Zealand has declined by nearly 40 percent – from 42.3 million to 25.8 million – and the number of beef cattle has decreased by 5 percent – from 4.2 million to 4.0 million.
Mr Burtt says one other factor B+LNZ is closely monitoring is the effect of sheep and beef farmland being converted to forestry. “We expect there will be a turn-off of capital livestock as land set aside for afforestation is planted – a process that takes some time – and this will be reflected in future livestock decreases.”
View the full Stock Number Survey report (PDF, 2.2MB).
For more information, please contact: Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s Economic Service Chief Economist, Andrew Burtt on 027 652 9543 or Communications Advisor Abigail Delaney on 027 209 9891.